We’re about to hit the World Cup, and many people will now be thinking about gambling on the tournament. But what to go for? It requires an entirely different skillset and thought process to betting on the Premier League.
Gambling on EPL matches is notoriously difficult. The league has built its success on competitive balance and unpredictability. It may feel like Man City and Liverpool win every week, but the reality is that anyone can beat anyone to a far greater extent than in most other top flights in Europe.
Plus, unlike in American sports where there are usually just two outcomes in games, football has three, making things even harder to predict. There’s nothing more frustrating for a bettor than backing the underdog for a win only to see them draw – or even worse, the other way round.
It all makes for a difficult proposition.
At the World Cup, you’ll want to think big picture and long term. Don’t just back Brazil or Argentina to win, or Karim Benzema to be top scorer. There’s no money to be made there.
Think deeper – which teams do well in World Cups? Teams which concede few goals. That’s the way that international tournaments are going. Just look at England in their last two efforts. They reached a World Cup semi final and a Euros final just by setting up a solid defence and playing for set pieces.
Much like with betting on underdogs in the Premier League, you also don’t want to be caught out by correctly predicting a successful underdog which doesn’t quite make it as far as you need them to.
So don’t back Croatia or Portugal to win it – back them to win the group or to make the final.
In the top scorer market, things are pretty interesting too. On the one hand, backing Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo seems obvious. But look at the past winners of the golden boot. It’s just not that simple. In a tournament where a player will play a maximum of 7 games, one big game can swing the whole thing.
You want to pick someone on penalties, and ideally someone playing in a group stage game where their team could run riot. If you follow all these tips, you can really enjoy the World Cup, and potentially even win some money too.
That should keep you busy until Chelsea are back in action on December 27th.